MeritValue

Fortive Corp

FTVdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fortive Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.39 and $40.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.25B1$5.83B2$3.91B3$4.08B3$4.16B3
Net income$608.4M4$755.2M5$865.8M6$832.9M6$579.2M6
Operating cash flow$961.1M7$1.3B8$1.35B9$1.53B9$1.08B9
Capital expenditure$50M10$95.8M11$78.6M12$86.1M12$105.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$911.1M7$1.21B8$1.28B9$1.44B9$978.1M9
Total debt$7.92B13$6.5B14$7.29B15$7.41B16$6.41B16
Cash & equivalents$819.3M17$709.2M18$1.89B19$813.3M20$375.5M20
Diluted shares352.3M360.8M355.6M352.8M334.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$191.63

10 shares is a claim on $192.87 of net worth that earned you $17.31 and generated $29.23 of cash last year, against $191.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 2%FY24 2%FY25 3%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.39 and $40.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$1.28B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$1.28B
Earnings Power Value
$23.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$755.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$36.4
Base1.8%$40.95
Bull6.8%$55.04

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-23-000080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001659166-23-000080 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001659166-24-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001659166-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001659166-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)