MeritValue

Fortrea Holdings Inc.

FTREdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fortrea Holdings Inc. earns about -11% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.75 and $10.23 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.06B1$2.84B2$2.84B3$2.7B3$2.72B3
Net income$98M4$186.2M5−$25.2M6−$328.5M6−$986.2M6
Operating cash flow$169.8M7$82.7M8$168.4M9$262.8M9$113.5M9
Capital expenditure$26.5M10$54.4M11$40.3M12$25.5M12$25.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$143.3M7$28.3M8$128.1M9$237.3M9$88.3M9
Total debt—$013$1.59B14$1.12B15$1.05B15
Cash & equivalents$94.6M16$112M17$108.6M18$118.5M19$174.6M19
Diluted shares88.8M88.8M88.8M89.5M93.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$60.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$105.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$113.08

10 shares is a claim on $60.53 of net worth that earned you −$105.93 and generated $9.48 of cash last year, against $113.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-11% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 1%FY24 -9%FY25 -54%

It earned about -11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.75 and $10.23 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$128.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$128.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.23
Base0.0%$10.23
Bull5.0%$14.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001965040-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001965040-25-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)