MeritValue

Fortinet, Inc.

FTNTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fortinet, Inc. earns about 115% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.56 and $110.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.34B1$4.42B2$5.3B3$5.96B3$6.8B3
Net income$606.8M4$857.3M5$1.15B6$1.75B6$1.85B6
Operating cash flow$1.5B7$1.73B8$1.94B9$2.26B9$2.59B9
Capital expenditure$295.9M10$281.2M11$204.1M12$378.9M12$364.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.2B7$1.45B8$1.73B9$1.88B9$2.23B9
Total debt$988.4M13$990.4M14$992.3M15$994.3M16$996.3M16
Cash & equivalents$1.32B17$1.68B18$1.4B19$2.88B20$2.5B20
Diluted shares835.3M805.3M788.2M771.9M764.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.11
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.03

10 shares is a claim on $16.18 of net worth that earned you $24.24 and generated $29.11 of cash last year, against $13.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
115% avg · 5y
FY21 78%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 117%FY25 150%

It earned about 115% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.56 and $110.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$110.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$1.88B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$70.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth16.0%
  • fcfBase$1.88B
Earnings Power Value
$15.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.15B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years16.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $70.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$37.08
Base16.0%$70.51
Bull20.0%$82.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 16.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262039-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262039-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262039-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001262039-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)