MeritValue

TechnipFMC plc

FTIdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TechnipFMC plc earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.39 and $91.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.4B1$6.7B2$7.82B3$9.08B3$9.93B3
Net income$13.3M4−$107.2M5$56.2M6$842.9M6$963.9M6
Operating cash flow$781.3M7$352.1M8$693M9$961M9$1.76B9
Capital expenditure$191.7M10$157.9M11$225.2M12$281.6M12$317.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$589.6M7$194.2M8$467.8M9$679.4M9$1.45B9
Total debt$4.01B13$2.73B14$2.13B15$1.77B16$860M16
Cash & equivalents$1.33B17$1.06B18$951.7M19$1.16B20$1.03B20
Diluted shares454.6M449.5M452.3M440.5M419.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.49

10 shares is a claim on $80.15 of net worth that earned you $22.97 and generated $34.49 of cash last year, against $20.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 4%FY24 23%FY25 30%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 79% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.39 and $91.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$91.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$679.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$51.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.2%
  • fcfBase$679.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $51.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.54
Base19.2%$51.65
Bull20.0%$53.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-23-000052 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001681459-23-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001681459-24-000070 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001681459-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001681459-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)