MeritValue

FUEL TECH, INC.

FTEKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FUEL TECH, INC. earns about -4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.55 and $0.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.3M1$26.9M2$27.1M3$25.1M4$26.7M4
Net income$54,0005−$1.44M6−$1.54M7−$1.94M8−$2.32M8
Operating cash flow$761,0009−$4.14M10$696,00011−$3.43M12$3.02M12
Capital expenditure$84,00013$206,00014$418,00015$378,00016$674,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$677,0009−$4.35M10$278,00011−$3.81M12$2.34M12
Total debt$017————
Cash & equivalents$35.9M18$23.3M19$17.6M20$8.51M21$11.9M21
Diluted shares29.7M30.3M30.3M30.6M30.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.76
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $12.91 of net worth that earned you −$0.75 and generated $0.76 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -5%FY23 -4%FY24 -4%FY25 -7%

It earned about -4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.55 and $0.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$278,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$278,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.55
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.51
Base5.0%$0.55
Bull10.0%$0.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005675 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007335 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006116 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006623 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005675 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007335 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006116 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006623 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005675 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007335 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006116 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006623 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005675 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007335 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006116 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006623 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005551 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005675 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007335 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-006116 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006623 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)