MeritValue

Fortitude Gold Corp

FTCOdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fortitude Gold Corp earns about 15% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$82.1M1$74.4M2$73.1M3$37.3M4$18.4M4
Net income$17.9M5$14.7M6$17M7−$2.04M8$420,0008
Operating cash flow$24.7M9$28.6M10$23M11−$6.64M12−$13M12
Capital expenditure$4.55M13$12M14$5.42M15$3.46M16$1.94M16
Free cash flow (derived)$20.1M9$16.6M10$17.6M11−$10.1M12−$15M12
Total debt$100,00017————
Cash & equivalents$40M18$45.1M19$48.7M20$27.1M21$4.66M21
Diluted shares24.1M24.2M24.2M24.2M24.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.09
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $42.49 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated −$6.09 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 21%FY23 26%FY24 2%FY25 1%

It earned an average 15% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$6.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002344 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-015351 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001506 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022879 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002344 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-015351 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001506 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002344 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-015351 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001506 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002344 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-015351 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001506 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022879 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-018732 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002344 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-015351 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001506 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-022879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)