MeritValue

FTAI Aviation Ltd.

FTAIdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FTAI Aviation Ltd. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$335.6M1$708.4M1$1.17B2$1.73B2$2.51B2
Net income−$130.7M3−$212M4$243.8M5$8.68M5$501.1M5
Operating cash flow−$22M6−$20.7M7$129M8−$188M8−$310.7M8
Capital expenditure$157.3M9$144.2M10$6.15M11$9.22M11$27.7M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$179.4M6−$164.9M7$122.8M8−$197.2M8−$338.5M8
Total debt$2.6B12$2.18B13$2.52B14$3.44B15$3.45B15
Cash & equivalents$138.2M16$33.6M17$90.8M18$115.1M19$300.5M19
Diluted shares89.9M99.4M100.4M101.5M103.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.25
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$332.11

10 shares is a claim on $32.18 of net worth that earned you $48.25 and generated −$32.59 of cash last year, against $332.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 2%FY23 13%FY24 0%FY25 14%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$8.68M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-23-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-24-000003 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590364-25-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590364-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590364-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-23-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590364-24-000003 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590364-25-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001590364-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001590364-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001590364-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012940 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)