MeritValue

FirstService Corp

FSVdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FirstService Corp earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $35.36 and $244.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.25B1$3.75B2$4.33B3$5.22B4$5.5B4
Net income$156.1M5$145M6$147M7$187.8M8$190.7M8
Operating cash flow$167.3M9$105.9M10$280.4M11$285.7M12$445.9M12
Capital expenditure$58.2M13$77.6M14$92.7M15$112.8M16$127.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)$109.1M9$28.3M10$187.6M11$172.9M12$318.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$165.7M17$136.2M18$187.6M19$227.6M20$154.4M20
Diluted shares44.4M44.5M44.8M45.3M45.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$300.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$69.55
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $300.74 of net worth that earned you $41.69 and generated $69.55 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 16%FY23 13%FY24 13%FY25 11%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $35.36 and $244.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$244.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.8%
  • fcfBase$187.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$136.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.8%
  • fcfBase$187.6M
Earnings Power Value
$35.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$156.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $136.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.97
Base19.8%$136.16
Bull20.0%$137.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001129 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000917 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000985 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001129 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000917 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001007 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000985 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001129 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000917 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000985 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001129 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000917 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000985 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001129 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000917 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000985 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)