MeritValue

FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP

FSUNdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP earns about 53% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 50% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.74 and $84.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$169.4M1$266.8M2$413.7M3$459.5M3$467.8M3
Net income$43.2M4$59.2M5$103.5M6$75.6M6$97.9M6
Operating cash flow$113.1M7$96.9M8$125.2M9$101.1M9$111.5M9
Capital expenditure$3.46M10$2.2M11$4.27M12$5.41M12$7.51M12
Free cash flow (derived)$109.7M7$94.7M8$120.9M9$95.7M9$104M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$668.5M13$343.5M14$479.4M15$615.9M16$652.6M16
Diluted shares18.8M23.8M25.4M28.1M28.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$408.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $408.27 of net worth that earned you $34.67 and generated $36.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
53% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 18%FY23 50%FY24 73%FY25 70%

It earned about 53% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+50% shares · 5y

Share count is up 50% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.74 and $84.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$104M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$83.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.2%
  • fcfBase$104M
Earnings Power Value
$27.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$75.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $83.45
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.69
Base3.2%$83.45
Bull8.2%$97.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709442-24-000013 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709442-25-000008 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709442-26-000017 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709442-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709442-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709442-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709442-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709442-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709442-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709442-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709442-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709442-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001709442-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001709442-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001709442-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001709442-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)