MeritValue

FOSTER L B CO

FSTRdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FOSTER L B CO earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.45 and $44.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$513.6M1$497.5M2$543.7M3$530.8M4$540M4
Net income$3.63M5−$45.6M6$1.46M7$42.9M8$7.55M8
Operating cash flow−$810,0009−$10.6M10$37M11$22.6M12$35.6M12
Capital expenditure$4.62M13$7.63M14$4.51M15$9.79M16$10.4M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.43M9−$18.2M10$32.4M11$12.8M12$25.2M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$10.4M17$2.88M18$2.56M19$2.45M20$4.35M20
Diluted shares10.8M10.7M11.0M11.0M10.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$161.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $161.07 of net worth that earned you $6.93 and generated $23.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 -3%FY23 5%FY24 8%FY25 5%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.45 and $44.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$25.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$25.2M
Earnings Power Value
$3.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.63M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$33.48
Base5.0%$41.49
Bull10.0%$51.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000352825-23-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000352825-24-000206 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000352825-25-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000352825-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000352825-23-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000352825-24-000206 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000352825-25-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000352825-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000352825-23-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000352825-24-000206 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000352825-25-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000352825-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000352825-23-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000352825-24-000206 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000352825-25-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000352825-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000352825-23-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000352825-24-000206 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000352825-25-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000352825-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)