MeritValue

FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/

FSSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FEDERAL SIGNAL CORP /DE/ earns about 18% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.52 and $185.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.21B1$1.43B2$1.72B3$1.86B3$2.18B3
Net income$100.6M4$120.4M5$157.4M6$216.3M6$246.6M6
Operating cash flow$101.8M7$71.8M8$194.4M9$231.3M9$254.7M9
Capital expenditure$37.4M10$53M11$30.3M12$40.6M12$27.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$64.4M7$18.8M8$164.1M9$190.7M9$227.1M9
Total debt$013$800,00014$3.9M15$7M16$016
Cash & equivalents$40.5M17$47.5M18$61M19$91.1M20$63.7M20
Diluted shares61.9M61.2M61.5M61.7M61.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.93
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $224.72 of net worth that earned you $40.1 and generated $36.93 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 16%FY23 18%FY24 21%FY25 20%

It earned about 18% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.52 and $185.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$185.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$190.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$102.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$190.7M
Earnings Power Value
$26.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$157.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$45.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $102.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.34
Base20.0%$102.13
Bull20.0%$102.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-23-000004 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000277509-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000277509-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000277509-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011576 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)