MeritValue

FORTUNA MINING CORP.

FSMdata completeness 63%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

FORTUNA MINING CORP. earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$599.9M1$681.5M2$842.4M3$677.2M4$947.1M4
Net income$57.9M5−$128.1M6−$50.8M7$128.7M8$287.5M8
Operating cash flow$147.1M9$194.2M10$296.9M11$365.7M11—
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$107.1M12$80.5M13$128.1M14$231.3M14$554M14
Diluted shares291.5M290.2M306.6M306.6M306.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $54.81 of net worth that earned you $9.4 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 -8%FY23 -1%FY24 8%FY25 26%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-038983 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004237 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003846 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035151 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-038983 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004237 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003846 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035151 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-038983 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004237 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003846 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004237 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003846 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035151 (CashAndCashEquivalents)