MeritValue

Fastly, Inc.

FSLYdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fastly, Inc. earns about -9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$354.3M1$432.7M2$506M3$543.7M3$624M3
Net income−$222.7M4−$190.8M5−$133.1M6−$158.1M6−$121.7M6
Operating cash flow−$38.5M7−$69.6M8$362,0009$16.4M9$94.4M9
Capital expenditure$34.8M10$20M11$11M12$10.3M12$28.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$73.3M7−$89.6M8−$10.6M9$6.08M9$65.8M9
Total debt$1.87B13$704.7M14$343.5M15$337.6M16$361.8M16
Cash & equivalents$166.1M17$143.4M18$107.9M19$286.2M19$180.6M19
Diluted shares116.1M121.7M128.8M138.1M146.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$63.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.48
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.63

10 shares is a claim on $63.28 of net worth that earned you −$8.28 and generated $4.48 of cash last year, against $24.63 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -6%FY22 -10%FY23 -8%FY24 -12%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.08M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$6.08M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-23-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001517413-24-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001517413-25-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001517413-26-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)