MeritValue

FIRST SOLAR, INC.

FSLRdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST SOLAR, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $80.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.92B1$2.62B2$3.32B3$4.21B3$5.22B3
Net income$468.7M4−$44.2M5$830.8M6$1.29B6$1.53B6
Operating cash flow$237.6M7$873.4M8$602.3M9$1.22B9$2.06B9
Capital expenditure$540.3M10$903.6M11$1.39B12$1.53B12$869.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$302.7M7−$30.2M8−$784.5M9−$308.1M9$1.19B9
Total debt$486.6M13$369.3M14$560.3M15$609.8M16$498.6M16
Cash & equivalents$1.45B17$1.48B18$1.95B19$1.62B20$2.8B20
Diluted shares106.9M106.6M107.4M107.5M107.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$886.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$142.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$110.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$46.36

10 shares is a claim on $886.95 of net worth that earned you $142.11 and generated $110.4 of cash last year, against $46.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 0%FY23 16%FY24 19%FY25 21%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$80.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$830.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$168.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-23-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001274494-23-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001274494-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001274494-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001274494-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)