MeritValue

FS KKR Capital Corp

FSKdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

FS KKR Capital Corp earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$1.52B1$92M2$696M3$585M3$11M3
Operating cash flow−$639M4$1.11B5$1.38B6$1.9B6$592M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$9.14B7$8.69B8$8.19B9$7.35B10$7.63B10
Cash & equivalents$377M11$251M12$231M12$296M12$208M12
Diluted shares211.7M283.5M280.3M280.1M280.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$208.84
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.39
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$272.58

10 shares is a claim on $208.84 of net worth that earned you $0.39 last year, against $272.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 1%FY23 10%FY24 9%FY25 0%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$585M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006912 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008175 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011734 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006912 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008175 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011734 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005258 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006912 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008175 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011734 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008175 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011734 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)