MeritValue

FS Bancorp, Inc.

FSBWdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FS Bancorp, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $47.48 and $83.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.01M1$3.19M1$4.61M1$184.8M2$197.2M2
Net income$37.4M3$29.6M4$36.1M5$35M5$33.3M5
Operating cash flow$109M6$184.9M7$77.7M8$50.8M8$72.3M8
Capital expenditure$1.98M9$1.55M10$1.67M11$1.64M11$20.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$107M6$183.3M7$76M8$49.2M8$51.9M8
Total debt$42.5M12$373.1M12$93.7M13$307.8M14$129.3M14
Cash & equivalents$26.5M15$41.4M16$65.7M17$31.6M18$28.2M18
Diluted shares8.4M7.9M7.8M7.9M7.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$402.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$67.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$169.17

10 shares is a claim on $402.56 of net worth that earned you $43.63 and generated $67.95 of cash last year, against $169.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 7%FY23 24%FY24 24%FY25 34%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 204% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $47.48 and $83.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$76.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$51.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$83.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$51.9M
Earnings Power Value
$47.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $83.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.86
Base0.0%$83.86
Bull5.0%$107.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008140 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008140 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008140 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004037 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008049 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008140 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008243 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)