MeritValue

FIVE STAR BANCORP

FSBCdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FIVE STAR BANCORP earns about 16% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 42% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.25 and $66.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$81.6M1$117.9M2$174.4M3$207M3$248.9M3
Net income$42.4M4$44.8M5$47.7M6$45.7M6$61.6M6
Operating cash flow$28.7M7$46M8$38.9M9$51.8M9$72.6M9
Capital expenditure$717,00010$481,00011$653,00012$628,00012$1.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$27.9M7$45.5M8$38.3M9$51.2M9$71.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$425.3M13$260M14$321.6M14$352.3M14$506.9M14
Diluted shares15.0M17.2M17.2M20.2M21.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$209.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.57
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $209.57 of net worth that earned you $28.96 and generated $33.57 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
16% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 18%FY23 17%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 16% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.25 and $66.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$66.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$51.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$64.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$51.2M
Earnings Power Value
$22.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $64.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.18
Base4.0%$64.69
Bull9.0%$74.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001275168-23-000049 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001275168-25-000038 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012724 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001275168-23-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001275168-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012724 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001275168-23-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001275168-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012724 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001275168-23-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001275168-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012724 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001552781-22-000215 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012724 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)