MeritValue

Primis Financial Corp.

FRSTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Primis Financial Corp. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.94 and $16.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$113.1M1$123.3M2$192.6M3$211M3$200.4M3
Net income$31.1M4$14.1M5−$7.83M6−$16.2M6$61.4M6
Operating cash flow$27.6M7$12.4M8$28.8M9$19.5M9$10.8M9
Capital expenditure$2.46M10$1.01M11$1.92M12$1.19M12$1.73M12
Free cash flow (derived)$25.2M7$11.4M8$26.9M9$18.3M9$9.03M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$530.2M13$77.9M14$77.6M15$64.5M16$143.6M16
Diluted shares24.6M24.7M24.6M24.7M24.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$171.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $171.33 of net worth that earned you $24.89 and generated $3.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 10%FY23 22%FY24 21%FY25 53%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.94 and $16.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$18.3M
Earnings Power Value
$5.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.43
Base0.0%$16.43
Bull5.0%$19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013277 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005861 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028599 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013277 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005861 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028599 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013277 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005861 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028599 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013277 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005861 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028599 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-013277 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005861 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)