MeritValue

Freshpet, Inc.

FRPTdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Freshpet, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$425.5M1$595.3M2$766.9M3$975.2M3$1.1B3
Net income−$29.7M4−$59.5M5−$33.6M6$46.9M6$139.1M6
Operating cash flow$647,0007−$43.2M8$75.9M9$154.3M9$160.6M9
Capital expenditure$322.1M10$230.1M11$239.1M12$187.1M12$148.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$321.5M7−$273.3M8−$163.2M9−$32.8M9$12.4M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$72.8M13$132.7M14$296.9M15$268.6M16$278M16
Diluted shares42.9M46.2M48.2M50.3M56.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$215.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.21
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $215.69 of net worth that earned you $24.83 and generated $2.21 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 -4%FY23 -2%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$35.79
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005542 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611647-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611647-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005542 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611647-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611647-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005542 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611647-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611647-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005542 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001611647-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611647-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004928 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005542 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001611647-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001611647-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)