MeritValue

JFrog Ltd

FROGdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

JFrog Ltd earns about -8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.89 and $55.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$206.7M1$280M2$349.9M3$428.5M3$531.8M3
Net income−$64.2M4−$90.2M5−$61.3M6−$69.2M6−$71.8M6
Operating cash flow$27.9M7$21.4M8$74.2M9$110.9M9$145.7M9
Capital expenditure$4.23M10$4.33M11$1.98M12$3.14M12$3.46M12
Free cash flow (derived)$23.7M7$17.1M8$72.2M9$107.8M9$142.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$68.3M13$45.6M14$84.8M15$49.9M15$75.8M15
Diluted shares94.8M99.2M103.3M109.7M116.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.18
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.37 of net worth that earned you −$6.18 and generated $12.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-8% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -12%FY23 -7%FY24 -7%FY25 -6%

It earned about -8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.89 and $55.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$107.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$107.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.91
Base20.0%$30.89
Bull20.0%$30.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015873 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021340 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051382 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015873 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021340 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051382 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015873 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021340 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051382 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015873 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021340 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051382 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-015873 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-021340 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-051382 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)