MeritValue

Frontline plc

FROdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Frontline plc earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $22.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$640.3M1$1.44B2$1.83B3$2.16B3$1.97B3
Net income−$11.1M4$475.5M5$656.4M6$495.6M6$379.1M6
Operating cash flow$62.9M7$385.3M8$856.2M9$736.4M9$682.5M9
Capital expenditure$473.8M10$335.8M11$1.63B12$915.2M12$12.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$410.8M7$49.5M8−$775.2M9−$178.8M9$669.9M9
Total debt$6.98B13$2.39B14$3.46B15$3.74B16$3.07B16
Cash & equivalents$113.1M17$254.5M18$308.3M18$413.5M18$251.3M18
Diluted shares199.0M222.6M222.6M222.6M222.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$112.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.03
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.09
Debt you’d be carrying
$137.8

10 shares is a claim on $112.81 of net worth that earned you $17.03 and generated $30.09 of cash last year, against $137.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 0%FY22 11%FY23 12%FY24 9%FY25 7%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 56% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$22.14
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$475.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-22-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913290-25-000003 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-22-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913290-23-000005 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-22-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913290-25-000003 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-24-000002 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913290-25-000003 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-22-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000913290-24-000002 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000913290-25-000003 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000913290-22-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021774 (CashAndCashEquivalents)