MeritValue

FIRST MERCHANTS CORP

FRMEdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRST MERCHANTS CORP earns about 22% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $39.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$446.6M1$605M2$893.9M3$948M3$924.8M3
Net income$205.5M4$222.1M5$223.8M6$201.4M6$226M6
Operating cash flow$215.3M7$284.3M8$258.8M9$266.2M9$283.6M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$167.1M10$122.6M11$112.6M11$87.6M11$84.2M11
Diluted shares54.0M58.0M59.5M58.5M57.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$427.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.15
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $427.3 of net worth that earned you $39.15 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 15%FY23 25%FY24 30%FY25 29%

It earned an average 22% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$39.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$222.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.08
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712534-24-000071 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712534-25-000058 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712534-26-000022 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712534-24-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712534-25-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712534-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712534-24-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712534-25-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000712534-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000712534-25-000058 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000712534-26-000022 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)