MeritValue

FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD/ CAN

FRFHFdata completeness 75%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD/ CAN earns about 20% on invested capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1,872.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$26.5B1$28.1B1———
Net income$3.4B2$3.37B3$4.38B4$3.87B5$4.77B5
Operating cash flow$6.64B6−$4.42B7−$39.4M8$3.99B9$2.42B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$7.75B10$8.62B11$9.72B12$11.8B12$13.6B12
Cash & equivalents$11.7B13$6.12B14$5.12B15$6.11B15$6.24B15
Diluted shares26.0M23.6M23.2M22.4M21.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$12,361.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2,224.91
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$6,360.38

10 shares is a claim on $12,361.08 of net worth that earned you $2,224.91 last year, against $6,360.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 18%FY23 18%FY24 14%FY25 16%

It earned an average 20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 76% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1,872.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.87B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2,438.39
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-031240 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-031240 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-032469 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-021813 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024781 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-031240 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-032469 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-021813 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024781 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-032469 (Borrowings)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-021813 (Borrowings)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024781 (Borrowings)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-032469 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-021813 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024781 (CashAndCashEquivalents)