MeritValue

FRIEDMAN INDUSTRIES INC

FRDdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FRIEDMAN INDUSTRIES INC earns about 16% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $20.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$126.1M1$285.2M2$547.5M3$516.3M4$444.6M4
Net income$11.4M5$14.1M6$21.3M7$17.3M8$6.09M8
Operating cash flow$8.43M9−$13.4M10$63.9M11$4.98M12−$4.41M12
Capital expenditure$4.61M13$8.07M14$16.5M15$5.79M16$4M16
Free cash flow (derived)$3.82M9−$21.5M10$47.4M11−$813,00012−$8.41M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$8.19M17$2.6M18$2.99M19$2.89M20$3.69M20
Diluted shares6.7M6.6M7.2M7.2M6.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$12.11
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $190.69 of net worth that earned you $8.76 and generated −$12.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 19%FY23 20%FY24 16%FY25 7%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$20.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-018429 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-019969 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-019948 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020219 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-018429 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-019969 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-019948 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020219 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-018429 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-019969 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-019948 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020219 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-018429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-019969 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-019948 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020219 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001437749-22-018429 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001437749-23-019969 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001437749-24-019948 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001437749-25-020219 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)