MeritValue

FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP

FOXFdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.97 and $101.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.3B1$1.6B2$1.46B3$1.39B3$1.47B3
Net income$163.8M4$205.3M5$120.8M6$6.55M6−$544.6M6
Operating cash flow$63.2M7$187.1M8$178.7M9$131.8M9$60.9M9
Capital expenditure$54.8M10$43.7M11$46.9M12$44M12$34M12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.34M7$143.4M8$131.9M9$87.8M9$27M9
Total debt$756.9M13$014$747.1M15$1.1B16$1.05B16
Cash & equivalents$179.7M17$145.3M18$83.6M19$71.7M20$58M20
Diluted shares42.4M42.4M42.4M41.7M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$160.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$130.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$250.6

10 shares is a claim on $160.4 of net worth that earned you −$130.34 and generated $6.45 of cash last year, against $250.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 22%FY23 7%FY25 3%FY26 -25%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.97 and $101.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$44.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
Earnings Power Value
$29.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$120.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $44.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.35
Base20.0%$44.83
Bull20.0%$44.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001424929-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-03 · accession 0001424929-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)