Fox Corp

FOXAdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fox Corp earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 23% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.81 and $34.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.9B1$14B2$14.9B3$14B3$16.3B3
Net income$2.2B4$1.23B5$1.25B6$1.55B6$2.29B6
Operating cash flow$2.64B7$1.88B8$1.8B9$1.84B9$3.32B9
Capital expenditure$484M10$307M11$357M12$345M12$331M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.16B7$1.58B8$1.44B9$1.5B9$2.99B9
Total debt$15.9B13$14.4B14$14.4B15$14.4B16$13.2B16
Cash & equivalents$5.89B17$5.2B18$4.27B18$4.32B18$5.35B18
Diluted shares595.0M570.0M531.0M480.0M461.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$259.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$49.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$64.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$286.42

10 shares is a claim on $259.48 of net worth that earned you $49.74 and generated $64.92 of cash last year, against $286.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 7%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 12%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−23% shares · 5y

Share count is down 23% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 17% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.81 and $34.93 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
Earnings Power Value
$34.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.55B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$53.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.3
Base0.0%$29.3
Bull5.0%$40.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-23-029065 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-23-029065 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-23-029065 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-23-029065 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-22-022584 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-23-029065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001628280-24-036123 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-038077 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)