MeritValue

Shift4 Payments, Inc.

FOURdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Shift4 Payments, Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 65% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $465.48 and $1,021.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.37B1$1.99B2$2.57B3$3.33B3$4.18B3
Net income−$48.2M4$75.1M5$86M6$230M6$119M6
Operating cash flow$3M7$275.4M8$346M9$500M9$634M9
Capital expenditure$8.2M10$8M11$14M12$7M12$10M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.2M7$267.4M8$332M9$493M9$624M9
Total debt$1.74B13$3.51B14$3.5B15$5.68B16$9.09B16
Cash & equivalents$1.23B17$702.5M18$455M19$1.21B20$964M20
Diluted shares—3.9M1.9M1.7M1.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10,812.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$892.26
Free cash flow it threw off
$4,678.76
Debt you’d be carrying
$68,171.97

10 shares is a claim on $10,812.14 of net worth that earned you $892.26 and generated $4,678.76 of cash last year, against $68,171.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 0%FY25 2%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−65% shares · 5y

Share count is down 65% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 423% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $465.48 and $1,021.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,021.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$493M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$465.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$493M
Earnings Power Value
$668.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $465.48
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$812.89
Base5.0%$465.48
Bull10.0%$1,995.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001794669-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001794669-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001794669-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001794669-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)