FIRST OTTAWA BANCSHARES, INC.

FOTBdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FIRST OTTAWA BANCSHARES, INC. earns about 27% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2010	FY 2011
Revenue	$11.2M¹	$10.5M¹
Net income	−$2.1M²	$750,000²
Operating cash flow	$2.61M³	$5.34M³
Capital expenditure	—	—
Free cash flow (derived)	—	—
Total debt	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$17.1M⁴	$21.3M⁴
Diluted shares	645,988	645,988

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$375.38

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$11.61

Free cash flow it threw off

—

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $375.38 of net worth that earned you $11.61 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

27% avg · 2y

FY10 -22%FY11 77%

It earned an average 27% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−0% shares · 2y

Share count is roughly flat over 2 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)

Graham Number

$31.3

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001387131-12-000833 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
10-K · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001387131-12-000833 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001387131-12-000833 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2010-12-31 · accession 0001387131-12-000833 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)