MeritValue

Fossil Group, Inc.

FOSLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fossil Group, Inc. earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$1.87B1$1.68B2$1.41B3$1.14B3$1B3
Net income$26.6M4−$43.5M5−$156.7M6−$106.3M6−$77.8M6
Operating cash flow$50M7−$110.9M8−$59.5M9$46.7M9−$57.9M9
Capital expenditure$10.3M10$13.3M11$8.53M12$6.75M12$2.56M12
Free cash flow (derived)$39.7M7−$124.1M8−$68M9$39.9M9−$60.5M9
Total debt$292.9M13$440M14$420.6M15$335.1M16$386.9M16
Cash & equivalents$250.8M17$198.7M18$117.2M19$123.6M19$95.8M19
Diluted shares52.8M51.8M52.3M53.0M54.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$19.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$71.53

10 shares is a claim on $19.01 of net worth that earned you −$14.39 and generated −$11.18 of cash last year, against $71.53 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY22 -0%FY23 -19%FY24 -26%FY26 -10%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 32% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000883569-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000883569-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000883569-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)