FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD

FORTYdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD earns about 2533% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.01 and $684.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.93B1$2.4B2$2.57B3$2.62B3$2.76B3
Net income$114M4$141.9M4$81.4M5$64M5$79.7M5
Operating cash flow$288.1M6$209.1M7$239.1M8$295M8$324.5M8
Capital expenditure$16.7M9$17.4M10$22.1M11$16.7M11$16.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$271.5M6$191.7M7$217.1M8$278.3M8$308M8
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$501.7M12$485.4M12$544.3M13$451.9M14$507.8M14
Diluted shares15.3M15.3M15.3M15.3M15.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$443.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$51.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$200.88
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $443.07 of net worth that earned you $51.96 and generated $200.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2533% avg · 5y
FY20 7253%FY21 FY22 2675%FY23 95%FY24 112%

It earned about 2533% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.01 and $684.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$684.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.2%
  • fcfBase$278.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$486.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.2%
  • fcfBase$278.3M
Earnings Power Value
$55.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$81.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$71.23
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $486.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$292.44
Base13.2%$486.05
Bull18.2%$585.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-094521 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-043687 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043461 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-027668 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043461 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-094521 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-043687 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043461 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-094521 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-043687 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043461 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-094521 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-043687 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-043461 (CashAndCashEquivalents)