MeritValue

FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC.

FORRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC. earns about -14% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.66 and $13.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$494.3M1$537.8M2$480.8M3$432.5M3$396.9M3
Net income$24.8M4$21.8M5$3.05M6−$5.75M6−$119.4M6
Operating cash flow$107.1M7$39.4M8$21.7M9−$3.86M9$21.1M9
Capital expenditure$10.7M10$5.66M11$5.5M12$3.4M12$2.99M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.3M7$33.8M8$16.2M9−$7.26M9$18.1M9
Total debt$150M13$50M14$35M15$35M16$35M16
Cash & equivalents$115.8M17$103.6M18$72.9M19$56.1M20$63.3M20
Diluted shares19.4M19.2M19.3M19.1M19.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$66.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$62.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.51
Debt you’d be carrying
$18.4

10 shares is a claim on $66.53 of net worth that earned you −$62.76 and generated $9.51 of cash last year, against $18.4 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 1%FY24 -0%FY25 -98%

It earned about -14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 77% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.66 and $13.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16.2M
Earnings Power Value
$1.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.05M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.64
Base0.0%$13.64
Bull5.0%$16.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007151 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007151 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-028381 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)