MeritValue

FORMFACTOR INC

FORMdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FORMFACTOR INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.99 and $9.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$769.7M1$747.9M2$663.1M3$763.6M3$785M3
Net income$83.9M4$50.7M5$82.4M6$69.6M6$54.4M6
Operating cash flow$139.4M7$131.8M8$64.6M9$117.5M9$115.4M9
Capital expenditure$66.5M10$65.3M11$56M12$38.4M12$103.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$72.9M7$66.5M8$8.58M9$79.1M9$11.7M9
Total debt$48.7M13$30.9M14$28.8M15$26.6M16$24.4M16
Cash & equivalents$151M17$109.1M18$177.8M19$190.7M19$103.3M19
Diluted shares79.1M78.2M78.2M78.4M78.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$132.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.12

10 shares is a claim on $132.21 of net worth that earned you $6.94 and generated $1.5 of cash last year, against $3.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 7%FY23 11%FY24 9%FY25 6%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.99 and $9.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.7M
Earnings Power Value
$9.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$69.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.15
Base0.0%$3.15
Bull5.0%$3.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001039399-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001039399-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001039399-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)