MeritValue

Finance of America Companies Inc.

FOAdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Finance of America Companies Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 275% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.96 and $59.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.8B1$52.8M2$234.3M3$394.4M4$497.4M4
Net income$518.4M5−$190.7M6−$80.1M7$15.5M8$45.2M8
Operating cash flow−$686.1M9$1.41B10−$71.6M11−$423.8M12−$429.7M12
Capital expenditure$9.03M13$11.2M13———
Free cash flow (derived)−$695.1M9$1.4B10———
Total debt—$399.4M14$410.9M15$374.5M15$357.5M16
Cash & equivalents$233.1M17$61.1M18$46.5M19$47.4M20$89.5M20
Diluted shares7.2M188.2M8.2M23.4M26.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$146.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.8
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$132.77

10 shares is a claim on $146.91 of net worth that earned you $16.8 last year, against $132.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY22 -24%FY23 -6%FY24 12%FY25 25%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+275% shares · 5y

Share count is up 275% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 10% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.96 and $59.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$59.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$96.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$96.8M
Earnings Power Value
$5.96
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.16
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.42
Base5.0%$53.86
Bull10.0%$68.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001828937-23-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828937-24-000024 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828937-25-000032 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017692 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001828937-23-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828937-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828937-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017692 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001828937-23-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828937-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828937-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017692 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001828937-23-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828937-24-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828937-25-000032 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017692 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-076304 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001828937-24-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001828937-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017692 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)