Finward Bancorp

FNWDdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Finward Bancorp earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.85 and $30.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$50.7M1$72M2$85.8M3$89.2M4$91.8M4
Net income$15M5$15.1M6$8.38M7$12.1M8$8.09M8
Operating cash flow$17M9$17.7M10$24.2M11$9.81M12$9.9M12
Capital expenditure$3.13M13$3.03M14$1.15M15$3.07M16$853,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$13.9M9$14.7M10$23.1M11$6.73M12$9.05M12
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares3.5M4.2M4.3M4.3M4.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$406.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.08
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $406.94 of net worth that earned you $18.84 and generated $21.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 15%FY23 27%FY24 37%FY25 37%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.85 and $30.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$27.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$9.05M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$30.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$9.05M
Earnings Power Value
$29.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $30.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$30.12
Base0.0%$30.12
Bull5.0%$37.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008638 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009816 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010182 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021073 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008638 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009816 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010182 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008638 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009816 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010182 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008638 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009816 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-010182 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-021073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)