MeritValue

First Northwest Bancorp

FNWBdata completeness 63%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

First Northwest Bancorp earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.69 and $54.37 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$63.7M1$80.4M2$100.9M3$112.3M4$107M4
Net income$15.4M5$15.6M6$2.29M7−$6.61M8−$4.19M8
Operating cash flow$15.2M9$15.9M10$17.9M11$16.9M12−$2.76M12
Capital expenditure$6.02M13$2.91M14$1.57M14——
Free cash flow (derived)$9.14M9$13M10$16.3M11——
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares9.2M9.1M8.9M8.8M8.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$178.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.77
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $178.9 of net worth that earned you −$4.77 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 14%FY23 21%FY24 25%FY25 26%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.69 and $54.37 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.6%
  • fcfBase$13M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$37.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.6%
  • fcfBase$13M
Earnings Power Value
$2.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.29M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $37.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.11
Base13.6%$37.37
Bull18.6%$45.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007102 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008142 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007492 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007102 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007492 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007102 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007492 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007102 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)