MeritValue

FIRST NORTHERN COMMUNITY BANCORP

FNRNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FIRST NORTHERN COMMUNITY BANCORP earns about 165% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.53 and $25.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$47.2M1$55.9M2$74.1M3$78.7M4$82.3M4
Net income$14.2M5$15.9M6$21.6M7$20M8$21.1M8
Operating cash flow$25.3M9$21.8M10$27.3M11$19.5M12$6.9M12
Capital expenditure$803,00013$344,00014$1.22M15$343,00016$1.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)$24.5M9$21.4M10$26.1M11$19.2M12$5.2M12
Total debt$017——$018$018
Cash & equivalents$345.9M19$187.4M20$149.2M21$119.4M22$145.6M22
Diluted shares14.9M15.3M16.1M16.9M16.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $127.94 of net worth that earned you $12.75 and generated $3.14 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
165% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 270%FY24 117%FY25 110%

It earned about 165% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.53 and $25.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$25.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19.2M
Earnings Power Value
$12.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $25.33
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.33
Base0.0%$25.33
Bull5.0%$29.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011153 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012415 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007622 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012415 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007622 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012415 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007622 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011153 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012415 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007622 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-009242 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-012415 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007622 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)