MeritValue

FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE

FNMAdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE earns about 2% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$99.7B1$120.3B2$139.7B3$150.6B3$158.6B3
Net income$22.2B4$12.9B5$17.4B6$17B6$14.4B6
Operating cash flow$47.2B7$43.8B8$11.9B9−$10.5B9$24B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.16T10$4.21T11$4.21T12$4.22T13$4.16T13
Cash & equivalents$42.4B14$58B15$35.8B16$38.9B16$42.6B17
Diluted shares5.89B5.89B5.89B5.89B5.89B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$184.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.37
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$7,052.25

10 shares is a claim on $184.99 of net worth that earned you $24.37 last year, against $7,052.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$29.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$17B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310522-24-000184 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310522-25-000199 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310522-26-000015 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310522-24-000184 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310522-25-000199 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310522-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310522-24-000184 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310522-25-000199 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310522-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310522-23-000184 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310522-24-000184 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310522-25-000199 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000310522-26-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310522-23-000184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310522-24-000184 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310522-25-000199 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000310522-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)