MeritValue

Fidelity National Financial, Inc.

FNFdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fidelity National Financial, Inc. earns about 18% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $48.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.82B1$2.23B2$1.86B3$1.92B3$2.1B3
Net income$2.8B4$1.29B5$517M6$1.27B6$602M6
Operating cash flow$4.09B7$4.36B8$6.48B9$6.82B9$5.83B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$3.1B10$3.24B11$3.89B12$4.32B13$4.4B13
Cash & equivalents$4.36B14$2.29B15$2.77B16$3.48B17$2.64B17
Diluted shares287.0M277.0M271.0M273.0M272.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$272.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.13
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$161.76

10 shares is a claim on $272.94 of net worth that earned you $22.13 last year, against $161.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 19%FY23 8%FY24 18%FY25 8%

It earned an average 18% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$48.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.27B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331875-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331875-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331875-26-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331875-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331875-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331875-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331875-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331875-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331875-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331875-23-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331875-24-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331875-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001331875-26-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001331875-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001331875-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001331875-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001331875-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)