Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
FNDdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on fileFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.51 and $28.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.43B1 | $4.26B2 | $4.41B3 | $4.46B3 | $4.68B3 |
| Net income | $283.2M4 | $298.2M5 | $246M6 | $205.9M6 | $208.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $301.3M7 | $112.5M8 | $803.6M9 | $603.2M9 | $381.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $407.7M10 | $456.6M11 | $547.6M12 | $446.8M12 | $317.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$106.3M7 | −$344.2M8 | $256M9 | $156.3M9 | $64.1M9 |
| Total debt | $397.8M13 | $409.8M14 | $199.1M15 | $196.6M16 | $196.2M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $139.4M17 | $9.79M18 | $34.4M18 | $187.7M18 | $249.3M18 |
| Diluted shares | 107.4M | 107.4M | 107.9M | 108.3M | 108.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $222.18 of net worth that earned you $19.24 and generated $5.91 of cash last year, against $18.1 of debt.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 51% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.51 and $28.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$156.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$156.3M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$246M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $21.09 |
| Base | 5.0% | $26.08 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $32.04 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001507079-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-28 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-26 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-30 · accession 0001507079-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-009770 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)