MeritValue

ORANGE

FNCTFdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

ORANGE earns about 8% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €9.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue€42.2B1€42.3B2€42.5B3€43.5B3€44.1B3
Net income€3B4€4.82B5€233M6€2.15B6€2.44B6
Operating cash flow€10.2B7€12.7B8€11.2B9€11.2B9€12.1B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents€6.48B10€8.15B11€8.62B11€6B11€5.62B11
Diluted shares2.66B2.66B2.66B2.66B2.66B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€119.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€9.18
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €119.75 of net worth that earned you €9.18 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY19 9%FY20 14%FY21 1%FY22 7%FY23 8%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
€9.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€2.44B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€15.13
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001634621-22-000007 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001634621-23-000008 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001634621-24-000010 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001634621-22-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001634621-23-000008 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001634621-24-000010 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001634621-22-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001634621-23-000008 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001634621-24-000010 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001634621-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001634621-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalents)