MeritValue

FNB CORP/PA/

FNBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FNB CORP/PA/ earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.8 and $13.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.01B1$1.29B2$1.97B3$2.25B3$2.33B3
Net income$405M4$439M5$485M6$465M6$565M6
Operating cash flow$530M7$1.22B8$423M9$642M9$482M9
Capital expenditure$58M10$95M11$88M12$139M12$106M12
Free cash flow (derived)$472M7$1.12B8$335M9$503M9$376M9
Total debt$2.22B13$2.47B14$4.48B15$4.27B16$3.92B16
Cash & equivalents$3.49B17$1.67B18$1.58B19$2.42B20$2.5B20
Diluted shares323.5M354.1M362.9M362.6M362.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$186.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$108.25

10 shares is a claim on $186.74 of net worth that earned you $15.61 and generated $10.39 of cash last year, against $108.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 9%FY23 12%FY24 19%FY25 21%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 77% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.8 and $13.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$376M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$10.92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$376M
Earnings Power Value
$13.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$465M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.6
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $10.92
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.92
Base0.0%$10.92
Bull5.0%$14.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-23-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000037808-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000037808-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000037808-25-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000037808-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)