MeritValue

Fabrinet

FNdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fabrinet earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $70.84 and $349.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.88B1$2.26B2$2.65B3$2.88B3$3.42B3
Net income$148.3M4$200.4M5$247.9M6$296.2M6$332.5M6
Operating cash flow$122.2M7$124.2M8$213.3M9$413.1M9$328.4M9
Capital expenditure$46.1M10$89.6M11$61.4M12$47.5M12$121.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$76.1M7$34.7M8$152M9$365.6M9$207.3M9
Total debt$39.5M13$27.4M14$12.2M14$015—
Cash & equivalents$303M16$198M17$231.4M17$410M18$306.4M18
Diluted shares37.6M37.4M36.9M36.6M36.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$546.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$91.69
Free cash flow it threw off
$57.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $546.45 of net worth that earned you $91.69 and generated $57.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 19%FY23 20%FY24 22%FY25 20%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $70.84 and $349.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$349.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$194.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
Earnings Power Value
$70.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$247.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$106.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $194.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$90.11
Base20.0%$194.8
Bull20.0%$194.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-22-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-25 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)