MeritValue

Fabrinet

FNdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Fabrinet earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $83.54 and $342.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.26B1$2.65B2$2.88B3$3.42B3$4.64B3
Net income$200.4M4$247.9M5$296.2M6$332.5M6$473M6
Operating cash flow$124.2M7$213.3M8$413.1M9$328.4M9$256.7M9
Capital expenditure$89.6M10$61.4M11$47.5M12$121.1M12$252.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$34.7M7$152M8$365.6M9$207.3M9$4.22M9
Total debt$27.4M13$12.2M13$014——
Cash & equivalents$198M15$231.4M15$410M16$306.4M16$346.7M16
Diluted shares37.4M36.9M36.6M36.3M36.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$677
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$130.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.16
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $677 of net worth that earned you $130.48 and generated $1.16 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY22 19%FY23 20%FY24 22%FY25 20%FY26 22%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $83.54 and $342.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$342.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$192.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$207.3M
Earnings Power Value
$83.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$296.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$141.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $192.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$89.71
Base20.0%$192.17
Bull20.0%$192.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001408710-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-24 · accession 0001408710-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001408710-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)