MeritValue

Fresenius Medical Care AG

FMSdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Fresenius Medical Care AG earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €24.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€17.6B1€19.4B2€19.5B3€19.3B3€19.6B3
Net income€969.3M4€673.4M5€499M6€537.9M6€978.4M6
Operating cash flow€2.49B7€2.17B8€2.63B9€2.39B9€2.68B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt€13.3B10€13.2B11€12.2B12€11B13€10.8B13
Cash & equivalents€1.48B14€1.27B15€1.4B16€1.18B17€1.6B17
Diluted shares293.0M293.4M293.4M293.4M279.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€476.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€35.03
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
€386.54

10 shares is a claim on €476.56 of net worth that earned you €35.03 last year, against €386.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
€24.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€673.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€60.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025293 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-016784 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019005 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025293 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-016784 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019005 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025293 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-016784 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019005 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024168 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025293 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-016784 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019005 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024168 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-025293 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-016784 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019005 (CashAndCashEquivalents)