MeritValue

FARMERS NATIONAL BANC CORP /OH/

FMNBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FARMERS NATIONAL BANC CORP /OH/ earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.76 and $14.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$116.5M1$186.3M2$255.2M3$269.4M3$279.9M3
Net income$51.8M4$60.6M5$49.9M6$45.9M6$54.6M6
Operating cash flow$54.9M7$81.5M8$62.9M9$66.6M9$60M9
Capital expenditure$1.38M10$2.56M11$3.88M12$11.7M12$7.86M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.6M7$78.9M8$59M9$54.9M9$52.2M9
Total debt$87.8M13$183.2M14$443.7M15$391.2M16$367.7M16
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares29.3M33.9M37.5M37.5M37.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$129.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$97.71

10 shares is a claim on $129.07 of net worth that earned you $14.5 and generated $13.87 of cash last year, against $97.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 16%FY23 13%FY24 19%FY25 20%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 319% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.76 and $14.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$54.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$11.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.8%
  • fcfBase$54.9M
Earnings Power Value
$14.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$51.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $11.87
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.08
Base0.8%$11.87
Bull5.8%$17.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027780 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034480 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007084 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027780 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034480 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007084 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027780 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034480 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007084 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027780 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034480 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007084 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007035 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027780 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-034480 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007084 (LongTermDebt)