MeritValue

Farmers & Merchants Bancshares, Inc.

FMFGdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Farmers & Merchants Bancshares, Inc. earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.12 and $20.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$25.7M1$26.3M2$31.3M3$38.4M4$42.4M4
Net income$8.15M5$8.09M6$6.42M7$4.28M8$5.77M8
Operating cash flow$11.7M9$7.16M10$5.9M11$2.31M12$6.05M12
Capital expenditure$300,40213$410,84314$863,00015$1.34M16$370,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$11.4M9$6.75M10$5.04M11$968,00012$5.68M12
Total debt$17M17$15.1M18$13.2M19$11.3M20$12M20
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares3.0M3.0M3.1M3.1M3.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$202.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.75

10 shares is a claim on $202.82 of net worth that earned you $18.09 and generated $17.82 of cash last year, against $37.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 15%FY23 21%FY24 30%FY25 32%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 29% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.12 and $20.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.04M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.04M
Earnings Power Value
$20.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.42M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.82
Base0.0%$18.82
Bull5.0%$24.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006153 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007276 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007333 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009952 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006153 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007276 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007333 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009952 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007276 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007333 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009952 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006153 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007276 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007333 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009952 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006153 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007276 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007333 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009952 (LongTermDebt)