MeritValue

FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP

FMCCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP earns about 16% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $34.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$61.5B1$83.5B2$105.4B3$117.9B3$129.8B3
Net income$12.1B4$9.33B5$10.5B6$11.9B6$10.7B6
Operating cash flow$16.4B7$11.9B8$7.62B9$6.63B9$19.4B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.98T10$3.14T11$3.2T12$182B13$207B13
Cash & equivalents$10.2B14$6.36B15$6.02B15$5.53B15$5.33B15
Diluted shares3.23B3.23B3.23B3.23B3.23B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$217.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.18
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$640.12

10 shares is a claim on $217.64 of net worth that earned you $33.18 last year, against $640.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 38%FY25 36%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 93% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$34.39
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026214-24-000025 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026214-25-000040 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026214-26-000021 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026214-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026214-25-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026214-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026214-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026214-25-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026214-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026214-22-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026214-23-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026214-24-000025 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001026214-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026214-25-000040 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026214-26-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)