MeritValue

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP

FMCBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP earns about 67% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1,309.69 and $7,646.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$165.3M1$198.4M2$253.8M3$272M3$279.5M3
Net income$66.3M4$75.1M5$88.3M6$88.5M6$93.6M6
Operating cash flow$60M7$101.8M8$93.3M9$103.7M9$104.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.07M10$4.19M11$4.97M12$2.4M12$7.58M12
Free cash flow (derived)$57.9M7$97.6M8$88.4M9$101.3M9$96.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$715.5M13$588.3M14$410.6M15$212.6M16$144.9M16
Diluted shares789,646777,726757,336730,914698,768

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9,237.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1,339.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$1,382.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $9,237.89 of net worth that earned you $1,339.57 and generated $1,382.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
67% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 84%FY24 66%FY25 51%

It earned about 67% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1,309.69 and $7,646.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7,646.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.6%
  • fcfBase$96.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4,479.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.6%
  • fcfBase$96.6M
Earnings Power Value
$1,309.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$88.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1,668.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4,479.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2,182.83
Base18.6%$4,479.81
Bull20.0%$4,715.29

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013280 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-008871 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009383 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013280 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-008871 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009383 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013280 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-008871 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009383 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013280 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-008871 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009383 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-011796 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-013280 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-008871 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009383 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)