FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC.
FMBHdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileFIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.52 and $282.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $183M1 | $215.9M2 | $300.2M3 | $357.4M3 | $373M3 |
| Net income | $51.5M4 | $73M5 | $68.9M6 | $78.9M6 | $91.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $69.6M7 | $65.8M8 | $72.4M9 | $124.4M9 | $130.9M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.7M10 | $5.02M11 | $3.64M12 | $4.95M12 | $6.85M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $65.9M7 | $60.8M8 | $68.8M9 | $119.5M9 | $124M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $354.5M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diluted shares | 17.9M | 20.2M | 21.9M | 23.9M | 24.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $399.68 of net worth that earned you $38.25 and generated $51.71 of cash last year, against $147.78 of debt.
It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.52 and $282.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$119.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$119.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$73M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $56.39 |
| Base | 20.0% | $147.63 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $147.63 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026921 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029793 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-080847 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026921 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029793 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-080847 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026921 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-080847 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026921 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-080847 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-080847 (LongTermDebt)