FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC

FMAOdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.82 and $32.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$76.8M1$101.1M2$139.8M3$163.6M3$173.5M3
Net income$23.5M4$32.5M5$22.8M6$25.9M6$33.3M6
Operating cash flow$34.7M7$40.7M8$22.1M9$32.5M9$36.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.97M10$2.6M11$10.9M12$1.87M12$1.77M12
Free cash flow (derived)$32.8M7$38.1M8$11.2M9$30.6M9$35M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares11.6M13.1M13.5M13.4M13.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$273.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.79
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $273.5 of net worth that earned you $24.56 and generated $25.79 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 15%FY23 22%FY24 28%FY25 31%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.82 and $32.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$30.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$30.6M
Earnings Power Value
$19.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.25
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.25
Base0.0%$32.25
Bull5.0%$40.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021373 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027602 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081475 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021373 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027602 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081475 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021373 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027602 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081475 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-021373 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027602 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-081475 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)