MeritValue

FLYEXCLUSIVE INC.

FLYXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

FLYEXCLUSIVE INC. earns about -140% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$320M1$315.4M2$315.4M2$327.3M3$375.9M3
Net income$6.05M4−$47.1M5−$46.8M5−$21.1M6−$17.6M6
Operating cash flow$45.6M7$8.67M8$8.67M8−$10.9M9$6.69M9
Capital expenditure$146M10$83.6M11$83.6M11$56.7M12$30.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$100.3M7−$75M8−$75M8−$67.6M9−$24.3M9
Total debt$249.6M13$401M13$401M13$279.8M14$117.5M15
Cash & equivalents$23.2M16$11.6M17$11.6M17$31.7M18$29.3M18
Diluted shares———23.8M27.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$119.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.9
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.13

10 shares is a claim on −$119.96 of net worth that earned you −$6.46 and generated −$8.9 of cash last year, against $43.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-140% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 -6%FY23 -6%FY24 -550%FY25 —

It earned an average -140% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 53% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-019447 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001843973-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)